Thursday, 20 September 2012
Thursday, 26 July 2012
The top down and bottom-up approach to stock investing
Posted here is the article on moneycontrol.com, written by Mr. Nirmal Jain of IIFL, on the two approaches to investing.
Nirmal Jain, IIFL
An investor can take 2 different approaches when looking to buy a share, a) top down and b) bottom up. While Top-down research and bottom-up research are vastly different ways to look at stocks, they both try and achieve exactly the same � to pick out the stocks which can deliver the best returns.
Top-down research begins by thinking about the big picture. Top-down investor looks at macroeconomic variables e.g. GDP growth rate, interest rates, inflation, flows, market valuations etc, as the state of the overall economy & valuations play a big role in the investment decision. The investor then tries to identify sectors that will perform better than others, and looks for opportunities in these sectors first. For example, if an investor believes that interest rates are going to come down in the coming months, he would like to identify sectors which will be positively impacted by the rise in interest rates, e.g. real estate, auto. He would then pick out the best performing stocks in that sector and add them to his portfolio.
By contrast, bottom up investing is all about the detail, or the smaller picture. The stocks are chosen based on their valuations and the growth potential of the company, instead of looking whether the company is in the right sector or not. A bottom up investors looks at company specific factors: market size, competitive position of the company, sales, earnings, expected future earnings and balance sheet of the company before deciding whether or not to invest. A bottom investor would study variables like price to earnings ratio, any debt or net cash the company has and its dividend yield. A bottom up investor would be unlikely to be swayed by economic conditions, instead focusing on whether a particular company offers good value and can potentially generate good returns over a period of time.
Bottom up investing is likely to provide better returns over a longer period (5 -7 years) but at the same time it might show extreme variations from the market returns. E.g. currently we are seeing that the markets are being driven by the top down approach. Indian markets are moving on factors like emerging markets vs developed markets growth vs. valuations. As a result FII money is coming in and going out resulting in wild variations in the market. Further since most of the FII money is index money large caps are doing much better than small and mid caps even though mid caps are trading at a substantial discount to large caps and large caps seem to be fully priced. As a result most of the bottom-up investors are underperforming the indexes like Nifty.
Markets take their own time to recognize the value of the companies e.g. during 1998 - 2000 PSU banks traded at 0.1 x � 0.5x P/B and < ~ 5x earning when the markets was willing to give a much higher multiple to companies in the IT space (P/E 30x � 50x). They continued to trade at these levels for 2 years and hence an investor invested in the sector would have hugely underperformed the markets for these 2 years. SBI e.g. generated a return of -30% for the period 1st April 1998 � 31st March 2000, while at the same time Nifty generated a return of 32.87%. However if you see the returns since 1st April 1998 to now SBI has generated a return of 10x as against 5x generated by the Nifty in the same time frame.
For investors with a long term view, value investing is the methodology to follow. However for investors with a slightly shorter term view a mix of top down and bottom-up approach is likely to yield best results. Such investors should use the top down approach to identify the current sectors, market capitalization etc to have exposure to and should use the bottoms up approach to identify the companies within those sectors.
An investor can take 2 different approaches when looking to buy a share, a) top down and b) bottom up. While Top-down research and bottom-up research are vastly different ways to look at stocks, they both try and achieve exactly the same � to pick out the stocks which can deliver the best returns.
Top-down research begins by thinking about the big picture. Top-down investor looks at macroeconomic variables e.g. GDP growth rate, interest rates, inflation, flows, market valuations etc, as the state of the overall economy & valuations play a big role in the investment decision. The investor then tries to identify sectors that will perform better than others, and looks for opportunities in these sectors first. For example, if an investor believes that interest rates are going to come down in the coming months, he would like to identify sectors which will be positively impacted by the rise in interest rates, e.g. real estate, auto. He would then pick out the best performing stocks in that sector and add them to his portfolio.
By contrast, bottom up investing is all about the detail, or the smaller picture. The stocks are chosen based on their valuations and the growth potential of the company, instead of looking whether the company is in the right sector or not. A bottom up investors looks at company specific factors: market size, competitive position of the company, sales, earnings, expected future earnings and balance sheet of the company before deciding whether or not to invest. A bottom investor would study variables like price to earnings ratio, any debt or net cash the company has and its dividend yield. A bottom up investor would be unlikely to be swayed by economic conditions, instead focusing on whether a particular company offers good value and can potentially generate good returns over a period of time.
Bottom up investing is likely to provide better returns over a longer period (5 -7 years) but at the same time it might show extreme variations from the market returns. E.g. currently we are seeing that the markets are being driven by the top down approach. Indian markets are moving on factors like emerging markets vs developed markets growth vs. valuations. As a result FII money is coming in and going out resulting in wild variations in the market. Further since most of the FII money is index money large caps are doing much better than small and mid caps even though mid caps are trading at a substantial discount to large caps and large caps seem to be fully priced. As a result most of the bottom-up investors are underperforming the indexes like Nifty.
Markets take their own time to recognize the value of the companies e.g. during 1998 - 2000 PSU banks traded at 0.1 x � 0.5x P/B and < ~ 5x earning when the markets was willing to give a much higher multiple to companies in the IT space (P/E 30x � 50x). They continued to trade at these levels for 2 years and hence an investor invested in the sector would have hugely underperformed the markets for these 2 years. SBI e.g. generated a return of -30% for the period 1st April 1998 � 31st March 2000, while at the same time Nifty generated a return of 32.87%. However if you see the returns since 1st April 1998 to now SBI has generated a return of 10x as against 5x generated by the Nifty in the same time frame.
For investors with a long term view, value investing is the methodology to follow. However for investors with a slightly shorter term view a mix of top down and bottom-up approach is likely to yield best results. Such investors should use the top down approach to identify the current sectors, market capitalization etc to have exposure to and should use the bottoms up approach to identify the companies within those sectors.
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
High Interest Rates and Weak Currency Augurs Well for Indian Banks
The macro environment in India in 2011 was not
conducive for businesses across sectors. In order to tackle the rising
inflation in the country the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the lending
rates throughout the year. Adding to the woos was the weakness in the Indian
currency, the rupee tumbled to an all-time low of Rs 54.17 vs. the US dollar on
Thursday, December 15.
I have been following the Q3 results of Indian banks and to my
surprise they have posted good results, both in the public as well as in the
private space. Allahabad Bank, a public sector bank, has posted a net
profit of Rs. 560.43 crore for the Dec'11 quarter. The net profit
figures of the bank increased by about 15% over the previous quarter and about
35% year-on-year. On similar lines ICICI Bank, which is India's
largest private sector bank, posted a 20% year-on-year rise in its net profit
for the third quarter (Oct - Dec 2011) to Rs. Rs 1,728 crore.
Despite an unfavorable macro environment, banks have cited that
increase in loan growth and high net interest margins (NIMs) led to the
increase in their net profit figures. This has led me to infer that 'high
interest rates and weak currency augurs well for the banking sector!'
One explanation I have is that the strengthening of the US
dollar may have caused a decline in External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) and in
turn might have led to increase in domestic borrowing.
Please feel free to post your views and comments!
Sunday, 15 January 2012
India's rising external debt vs foreign currency reserves
A Balancing Act
Are we in danger of
becoming a very highly indebted nation?
A review of the latest balance of payments data should
raise the hairs on the back of your neck. In the past five years, India’s
external debt has grown from $152 billion to about $327 billion. Okay, we are a
fast growing economy, so that increase should not matter much. But look at our foreign currency reserves: at about $315 billion, they accounted for 138 per cent of total external debt (about $225 billion) in March 2008. At end-September 2011, the equation is the following: debt at $327 billion, versus reserves at roughly $312 billion.
Roughly 66 per cent of that increase between 2005-06 (FY2006) and September 2011 is accounted for by private sector borrowing through external commercial borrowings or ECBs; companies took advantage of lower international interest rates compared to domestic rates; about $137 billion of that debt is due to be repaid in less than a year, mainly shorter-term trade credits.
Which creates a problem, as rolling that amount over could get more difficult given global economic conditions. Blame the current account deficit: at the end of March 2011, it amounted to $44 billion, up from $16 billion in March 2008. We are all familiar with the impact of higher oil prices (an increase of $10 per barrel adds roughly $7.5 billion to the annual import bill).
There is another contributing factor that is less apparent: our love for gold, which accounts for about $23 billion of that $44 billion current account deficit in FY2011. Most of that has been for consumption; viewed against India’s worsening external debt position, all that gold will not glitter.
(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 16-01-2012)
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